Russian intelligence role in Africa

 

Zoporozhye Nuclear Power Plant

Dr. Jassim Taqui, DG Al-Bab Institute for Strategic studies 

Marking the 25th rotation of IAEA personnel to the Zoporozhye Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, the IAEA reaffirmed its commitment to monitor nuclear safety and security at Europe's largest nuclear power plant. 

The IAEA is based on the premises to help prevent the threat of a nuclear accident, which would be catastrophic for Ukraine and the region, constituting a Calamity for human health and the environment. 

These personnel are deployed to the Zoporozhye Nuclear Power Plant to help prevent a radiological accident during the ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. 

The IAEA first deployed its teams to the site in September 2022 and has been continuously rotating its personnel on missions spanning several weeks since then. 

This was around the same time the plant, located on the left bank of the Dnepr River, fell to Russia, and has remained under Russian control since. 

However, it has come under repeated attacks since then, which has raised security concerns. 

Recently, Russia claims to have thwarted a Ukrainian operation, codenamed Short Circuit to infiltrate and seize the plant on October 11. 

Therefore, such an operation to take over a nuclear power plant is unprecedented and involves immaculate planning and execution, albeit with a high degree of risk. 

It is pertinent to note that not only did Russia manage to pull off the operation, but it also successfully engaged the international community to deploy IAEA teams to the site, who are, in effect, guarantors that no fighting will threaten the safety and security of the power plant. 

For Pakistan, this poses a worrying precedent, since its nuclear facilities have long been accused of being under threat of falling into extremist hands. 

At the same time, B52 bombers continue to be stationed a short distance from the Pakistani mainland, with the ever-present threat that its nuclear facilities may come under preemptive attack in the event of internal strife in Pakistan that spills over close to nuclear installations.  

This precedent and security scenario encourages forces hostile to Pakistan to engineer an attack close to its nuclear installations, thereby compelling international forces and watchdogs to take preemptive measures. 

All such preemptive interventions inevitably lead to Pakistani disarmament and dismemberment. 

Russia and the Red Sea

 Russia and Indonesia will hold joint naval drills, dubbed Orruda 2024, in the Java Sea from November 4 to 8. 

While Indonesia has held annual naval drills with the US since 2006, known as Super Garuda Shield, this is the first time the Indonesian navy has held drills with the Russian Navy. 

A contingent of ships of the Russian Pacific Fleet is visiting Indonesia and its commander has expressed the hope that these naval drills - designed to provide assistance to Indonesia and increase its Navy's knowledge and warfighting capabilities - will become an annual fixture and grow in scale. 

Traditionally, with a sizeable naval presence in Andaman and Nicobar, Russia has relied on its strategic partnership with the Indian Navy to look after its interests in the Indian Ocean and the Andaman Sea. 

However, with India increasingly tilting towards the US and Europe, it is expected that Russia will have to look further afield to project its power in the Indian Ocean region. 

With war raging in the Persian Gulf, and with the Red Sea poised to turn into a conflict zone, all European maritime traffic passing through the Suez Canal to reach destinations in Asia and the Pacific is increasingly under threat and prone to uncertainty. 

This puts Russia at a disadvantage and threatens its far east as well as Siberia. 

It also refrains Russia from projecting its power into the Middle East and Africa, besides opening up China to instability and supply disruptions. 

With the new Myanmar junta chief poised to make his first visit to China since taking power, China is already engaged in shoring up its flank in the Bay of Bengal - its only other friendly access to the Indian Ocean other than Pakistan. 

Engaging with Indonesia will allow the Russians to safeguard sea passages going to and from the Pacific, around the Cape of Good Hope into Africa, Europe, and America. 

However, with the Red Sea balanced on a knife's edge, Russia is too far away from the action to exert a forceful and meaningful presence in the event of emerging crises. 

At the same time, India is in no position to provide a counterweight to the West, as it has increasingly turned towards Europe for advanced armaments and has shown a tilt towards it in international politics. 

In this scenario, it was expected that Russia would have to work more closely with Indonesia and Malaysia to protect its Far East. 

However, to truly become engaged in Africa and the Middle East, as well as to woo China, keeping it engaged in these parts of the world, Russia increasingly, has to increase its naval footprint in the Arabian Sea. 

India may not be the ally Russia is looking for to protect these interests, due to its strategic partnership with Israel, whose policies have resulted in turning all of the Middle East and North Africa into a war zone. 

If Israel keeps along the same trajectory, then war will see the Red Sea being shut down to international maritime traffic and India will be an accomplice to the maneuvers. 

This means that Russia must engage with Pakistan and Iran, fortifying their navies to keep order in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.  

Unless Russia builds Pakistan a navy and finds it common ground in its Red Sea policy, all regional maritime trade will likely be diverted around the tip of Africa. 

While this will allow guerilla warfare to flourish in the Middle East and Africa, NATO will likely become overwhelmingly more powerful in the High Seas, particularly in the Indian Ocean, Antarctica, the South Pacific, and the Atlantic, thereby cornering Russia in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. 

Going forward, Russia and China have little choice but to project their influence into the Middle East and Africa, securing maritime routes in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf. 

Threats to Arabian Peninsula

 The Yemeni port city of Hudayda has come under renewed attack, with coalition forces bombing its airport. 

As a crucial trading hub in the Red Sea, Hudayda's port receives 70-80% of all humanitarian aid sent into Yemen. 

Following the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, Operation Sankalp, and Operation Aspides, Hodeidah has increasingly become the focal point of the coalition efforts to dismember and degrade the Houthi movement. 

Key Highlights of the Houthi military campaign are given below:

• Launch of a drone that evaded Israeli air defenses and slammed into a building in Tel Aviv. 
• Launch of the Palestine 2 ballistic missile towards central Israel. 
• Launch of drones targetting the Israeli city of Ashkelon
• Drones targeting the Israeli city of Eilat
• Ship seizures, missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea
• Shooting down MQ-9 Reaper drones by the Houthis
• Unveiling of the submersible al-Qariah naval drone

The Houthis have stepped up their campaign as a response to the ongoing Gaza conflict, with the stated aim of stopping hostilities and allowing food and other aid to enter into the Gaza Strip. 

Ironically, however, it has faced a backlash to its own logistical lines with Hudaydah bearing the brunt of the coalition onslaught, while Houthis have embarked on a campaign to isolate Eilat and deny the Israels access to the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aqaba. 

Increasingly, Israel has seen a significant decline in port activity at Eilat, and now relies on ships passing through the Suez to gain entry into Asia. 

At the same time, Israel has launched crippling attacks against port infrastructure including Port cranes, power generating stations, oil refineries and oil storage infrastructure. 

However, it is the damage to the logistical lines that sees humanitarian aid flowing into Yemen which will cause the greatest disruptions and mark the most intense phase of the civil war in Yemen. 

A similar situation has already been created in South and South western Sudan, with the next phase of its civil war being marked by cutting off of its logistical lines as well. 

Thus, the Israeli warfighting strategy is quite clear. By shutting down Eilat and putting all its Asia bound traffic through the Suez Canal, it is inviting a three pronged attack:

• On the Port of Eilat
• To Israeli shipping in the Red Sea
• To (Israeli) maritime trade passing through the Suez Canal 

With multiple Operations already under way in the region, including the Indian Sankalp, the EU Aspides and the US Prosperity Guardian, Israel has already galvanised a vast international coalition against the Houthis. 

By cutting off the seacoast to the Houthis, the Israelis seek to drive them either into the east, bordering Oman, or into the North, towards Saudi Arabia's oilfields in its south and south West. 

Therefore, the three flashpoints in the war against Houthis will be:

• Oman
• Suez Canal
• Southern Saudi Arabia

An attack in the Suez will be particularly destabilising, as will the threat to Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu, and will probably entail massing of troops inside Oman and Saudi Arabia, while a three pronged war breaks out against:

• Yemen
• Somalia
• Sudan

The likely partners in such a war will include Kenya, Ethiopia, Central African Republic and India, and will likely see a blitz to take over some portion of the Somali Horn of Africa at lightning speed at the outset of hostilities. 

The greatest casualty of such a warplan will be Oman, in the longer run, as it destabilizes and comes under pressure from Yemen, Somalia and Saudi Arabia itself. 

For its part, Pakistan is completely lost in the ongoing war. If it comes to the aid of Saudi Arabia in line with its naval warfighting doctrine of keeping the Red Sea free from hostilities, it risks alienating Oman and the Persian Gulf states who will be affected from the fallout, besides also becoming a target for Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. 

If Pakistan does not come to the aid of Saudi Arabia, it will risk losing its main ally, Saudi Arabia, alongwith Egypt and Turkey. 

All in all, current hostilities have severely hemmed in Saudi Arabia from all sides and have wrestle the GCC states away from it, as any war in Yemen is bound to do. 

Already, the seeds have long been planted following decades of war in the Persian Gulf which have seen Iraq reduced to rubble. 

However, war in the Horn of Africa will signal the complete encirclement of Saudi Arabia and signal a slow decline of the kingdom following infighting and worsening security among GCC members. 

Concurrently, Africa's eastern and north eastern borders will be redefined and new centers of power will emerge, which will threaten the stability and security of the Arabian Peninsula. 

Therefore, it is imperative to stop the Israeli campaign against Gaza, to take away the popular public sentiment and propoganda initiative from the Houthis, while at the same time pushing for a settlement to the crisis in Yemen. 

Ultimately, it is superior diplomacy, and not war which will serve Saudi Arabian national interests and cause them to continue to lead the Islamic World. 

On the other hand, if the initiative is taken away from diplomats and thrust into the hands of war fighting generals, Saudi Arabia risks infighting and losing its preeminence among the league of nations. 

Stalwarts like Prince Turki Al Faisal will be cognizant of the multiple challenges facing Saudi Arabia and the Islamic world, and will see the trajectory current state of affairs are heading in, threatening to descend into a spiral of destruction, famine and war. 

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Compose: 1.11.2024