The Yemeni port city of Hudayda has come under renewed attack, with coalition forces bombing its airport.
As a crucial trading hub in the Red Sea, Hudayda's port receives 70-80% of all humanitarian aid sent into Yemen.
Following the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, Operation Sankalp, and Operation Aspides, Hodeidah has increasingly become the focal point of the coalition efforts to dismember and degrade the Houthi movement.
Key Highlights of the Houthi military campaign are given below:
- Launch of a drone that evaded Israeli air defenses and slammed into a building in Tel Aviv.
- Launch of the Palestine 2 ballistic missile towards central Israel.
- Launch of drones targetting the Israeli city of Ashkelon
- Drones targeting the Israeli city of Eilat
- Ship seizures, missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea
- Shooting down MQ-9 Reaper drones by the Houthis
- Unveiling of the submersible al-Qariah naval drone
The Houthis have stepped up their campaign as a response to the ongoing Gaza conflict, with the stated aim of stopping hostilities and allowing food and other aid to enter into the Gaza Strip.
Ironically, however, it has faced a backlash to its own logistical lines with Hudaydah bearing the brunt of the coalition onslaught, while Houthis have embarked on a campaign to isolate Eilat and deny the Israels access to the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aqaba.
Increasingly, Israel has seen a significant decline in port activity at Eilat, and now relies on ships passing through the Suez to gain entry into Asia.
At the same time, Israel has launched crippling attacks against port infrastructure including Port cranes, power generating stations, oil refineries and oil storage infrastructure.
However, it is the damage to the logistical lines that sees humanitarian aid flowing into Yemen which will cause the greatest disruptions and mark the most intense phase of the civil war in Yemen.
A similar situation has already been created in South and South western Sudan, with the next phase of its civil war being marked by cutting off of its logistical lines as well.
Thus, the Israeli warfighting strategy is quite clear. By shutting down Eilat and putting all its Asia bound traffic through the Suez Canal, it is inviting a three pronged attack:
- On the Port of Eilat
- To Israeli shipping in the Red Sea
- To (Israeli) maritime trade passing through the Suez Canal
With multiple Operations already under way in the region, including the Indian Sankalp, the EU Aspides and the US Prosperity Guardian, Israel has already galvanised a vast international coalition against the Houthis.
By cutting off the seacoast to the Houthis, the Israelis seek to drive them either into the east, bordering Oman, or into the North, towards Saudi Arabia's oilfields in its south and south West.
Therefore, the three flashpoints in the war against Houthis will be:
- Oman
- Suez Canal
- Southern Saudi Arabia
An attack in the Suez will be particularly destabilising, as will the threat to Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu, and will probably entail massing of troops inside Oman and Saudi Arabia, while a three pronged war breaks out against:
- Yemen
- Somalia
- Sudan
The likely partners in such a war will include Kenya, Ethiopia, Central African Republic and India, and will likely see a blitz to take over some portion of the Somali Horn of Africa at lightning speed at the outset of hostilities.
The greatest casualty of such a warplan will be Oman, in the longer run, as it destabilizes and comes under pressure from Yemen, Somalia and Saudi Arabia itself.
For its part, Pakistan is completely lost in the ongoing war. If it comes to the aid of Saudi Arabia in line with its naval warfighting doctrine of keeping the Red Sea free from hostilities, it risks alienating Oman and the Persian Gulf states who will be affected from the fallout, besides also becoming a target for Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
If Pakistan does not come to the aid of Saudi Arabia, it will risk losing its main ally, Saudi Arabia, alongwith Egypt and Turkey.
All in all, current hostilities have severely hemmed in Saudi Arabia from all sides and have wrestle the GCC states away from it, as any war in Yemen is bound to do.
Already, the seeds have long been planted following decades of war in the Persian Gulf which have seen Iraq reduced to rubble.
However, war in the Horn of Africa will signal the complete encirclement of Saudi Arabia and signal a slow decline of the kingdom following infighting and worsening security among GCC members.
Concurrently, Africa's eastern and north eastern borders will be redefined and new centers of power will emerge, which will threaten the stability and security of the Arabian Peninsula.
Therefore, it is imperative to stop the Israeli campaign against Gaza, to take away the popular public sentiment and propoganda initiative from the Houthis, while at the same time pushing for a settlement to the crisis in Yemen.
Ultimately, it is superior diplomacy, and not war which will serve Saudi Arabian national interests and cause them to continue to lead the Islamic World.
On the other hand, if the initiative is taken away from diplomats and thrust into the hands of war fighting generals, Saudi Arabia risks infighting and losing its preeminence among the league of nations.
Stalwarts like Prince Turki Al Faisal will be cognizant of the multiple challenges facing Saudi Arabia and the Islamic world, and will see the trajectory current state of affairs are heading in, threatening to descend into a spiral of destruction, famine and war.
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