Russia and the Red Sea

 Russia and Indonesia will hold joint naval drills, dubbed Orruda 2024, in the Java Sea from November 4 to 8. 

While Indonesia has held annual naval drills with the US since 2006, known as Super Garuda Shield, this is the first time the Indonesian navy has held drills with the Russian Navy. 

A contingent of ships of the Russian Pacific Fleet is visiting Indonesia and its commander has expressed the hope that these naval drills - designed to provide assistance to Indonesia and increase its Navy's knowledge and warfighting capabilities - will become an annual fixture and grow in scale. 

Traditionally, with a sizeable naval presence in Andaman and Nicobar, Russia has relied on its strategic partnership with the Indian Navy to look after its interests in the Indian Ocean and the Andaman Sea. 

However, with India increasingly tilting towards the US and Europe, it is expected that Russia will have to look further afield to project its power in the Indian Ocean region. 

With war raging in the Persian Gulf, and with the Red Sea poised to turn into a conflict zone, all European maritime traffic passing through the Suez Canal to reach destinations in Asia and the Pacific is increasingly under threat and prone to uncertainty. 

This puts Russia at a disadvantage and threatens its far east as well as Siberia. 

It also refrains Russia from projecting its power into the Middle East and Africa, besides opening up China to instability and supply disruptions. 

With the new Myanmar junta chief poised to make his first visit to China since taking power, China is already engaged in shoring up its flank in the Bay of Bengal - its only other friendly access to the Indian Ocean other than Pakistan. 

Engaging with Indonesia will allow the Russians to safeguard sea passages going to and from the Pacific, around the Cape of Good Hope into Africa, Europe, and America. 

However, with the Red Sea balanced on a knife's edge, Russia is too far away from the action to exert a forceful and meaningful presence in the event of emerging crises. 

At the same time, India is in no position to provide a counterweight to the West, as it has increasingly turned towards Europe for advanced armaments and has shown a tilt towards it in international politics. 

In this scenario, it was expected that Russia would have to work more closely with Indonesia and Malaysia to protect its Far East. 

However, to truly become engaged in Africa and the Middle East, as well as to woo China, keeping it engaged in these parts of the world, Russia increasingly, has to increase its naval footprint in the Arabian Sea. 

India may not be the ally Russia is looking for to protect these interests, due to its strategic partnership with Israel, whose policies have resulted in turning all of the Middle East and North Africa into a war zone. 

If Israel keeps along the same trajectory, then war will see the Red Sea being shut down to international maritime traffic and India will be an accomplice to the maneuvers. 

This means that Russia must engage with Pakistan and Iran, fortifying their navies to keep order in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.  

Unless Russia builds Pakistan a navy and finds it common ground in its Red Sea policy, all regional maritime trade will likely be diverted around the tip of Africa. 

While this will allow guerilla warfare to flourish in the Middle East and Africa, NATO will likely become overwhelmingly more powerful in the High Seas, particularly in the Indian Ocean, Antarctica, the South Pacific, and the Atlantic, thereby cornering Russia in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. 

Going forward, Russia and China have little choice but to project their influence into the Middle East and Africa, securing maritime routes in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.