India has test-fired the Agni 4 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile from Odisha, on September 6, 2024.

 India has test-fired the Agni 4 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile from Odisha, on September 6, 2024. 

The missile boasts a range of up to 3500 km, easily outperforming Pakistan in terms of range. 

The Agni 5 can cover 5000 km, while the underdeveloped Agni6 is purported to have a range of 10,000 km and can reportedly be launched from the sea. 

While the kill radius of Agni 4 and Agni 5 would rope in all of Iran as well as parts of the Middle East and Central Asia, besides also increasing India's influence in South Asia, a capability of launching these missiles from India rapidly expanding fleet of nuclear submarines will test Pakistani military doctrine and warfighting tactics and strategies. 

For one, it will allow the Indian navy to take positions at a defensive, stand-off range, where the Pakistani Navy will have to come to it. 

In the absence of long-range bombers, twin-engine fighter jets, and aircraft carriers, the navy will also have to be equipped with missiles and torpedoes capable of destroying Indian numbers at stand-off range, which would require increasing the range and quantum of its own missiles.

This means that the Pakistani armed forces will have to ditch their defensive posture and move towards a decidedly aggressive war footing as far as equipment, inventories, tactics, strategies and synergies are concerned. 

Since land-based variants of the Agni 4 and Agni 5 would appear to be directed at targets much farther afield than Pakistan, it is reasonable to expect that these missiles follow eccentric flight paths and are designed to evade Ballistic Missiles (ABMs). 

With India already investing heavily in the S400 Triumf systems, as well as integrating its air defences under its networked military doctrine of Buddh Aditya, it is apparent that they have war-gamed pre-emptive first strikes against Pakistan, and has copiously turned Pakistans weaknesses into its own strengths. 

Chinese-made Air Defence Systems and missile interceptors are not in the same league as Indian supersonic cruise missiles (BrahMos) and are also likely no match against smart missiles built to evade missile defense shields. 

There will be a tendency among Pakistani military planners to adopt a very aggressive posture with their strategic assets as a result of the developing Indian war machine. 

However, the conventional balance will continue to tip in India's favor, allowing it to fight with its guerillas, special forces, and militias to devastating effect. 

The more Indian armed forces move towards stand-off range and defensive military postures, the more advantageous their war footing in asymmetrical, guerilla warfare. 

There is every reason to expect that Kashmir and Afghanistan will both continue to remain hotbed of militancy, and will be used as springboards in the war against Pakistan.  

Even Iran will have a wary eye on India, as its cities come under the kill radius of Indian missiles.