First Strike on Russia

 

Ali Jassim	12:02 PM (3 hours ago)

President Putin oversaw nuclear exercises in Moscow, coming close on the heels of similar exercises of nuclear deterrent forces which were held two weeks ago. 

The exercises aim at regulating the actions of officials following launches of Ballistic and cruise missiles. 

Putin has asserted that Russia will work to upgrade all components of nuclear weapons and that the use of nuclear weapons would be an "exceptional measure". 

He stressed that the nuclear arsenal would remain ready for use and that nuclear forces would be maintained at a level of necessary sufficiency. 

Russia's nuclear doctrine underscores the need to keep its nuclear arsenal in a "permanent state of readiness", owing to rising global tensions and the emergence of new threats. 

The Strategic Missile Forces of Russia (RVSN) are prepped to transform into upgraded stationary and mobile systems boasting:

• Higher accuracy
• Reduced launch times
• Enhanced capabilities to overcome missile defenses
• Greater lethality
• Greater maneuverability
• Enhanced survivability

The exercises come at a time when the Russian Navy is being equipped with the latest nuclear submarines and while its Air Force is modernizing its fleet of strategic, long-range nuclear bombers.  

While the nuclear exercises conducted last week involved the Yars intercontinental Ballistic Missile capable of striking US cities, Russian apprehensions about the Ukraine War, as well as the miniaturization of nuclear warheads by the US to form tactical weapons imply that Russia has been busy developing its own tactical arsenal of nukes. 

Repeated warnings issued by Russia to NATO proclaiming that any assistance provided to Ukraine in targetting Russian cities through long-range weapons would be considered a joint nuclear strike on Russia further imply that Russia stands ready to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine in such a scenario. 

This effectively bars the use of long-range missiles by Ukrainian forces, since Russia would have no way of knowing whether such missiles would be nuclear-tipped, thus initiating the RVSN nuclear response against pre-determined targets.

In conducting these nuclear exercises and updating its nuclear doctrine, therefore, Russia has underscored the problem inherent in a nuclear power engaged in war on its borders. 

This follows Pakistan's own nuclear thinking which states that no matter where an attack comes from, it would be construed as an Indian attack on its vital security interests. 

In the same vein, Putin and the Russian Security Council have sounded the warning that any attacks on Russia will be considered to be a joint nuclear attack targetting the country, thereby aiming to reduce the risk of asymmetric warfare and an overwhelming first strike with the goals of annihilating Russian nuclear capabilities. 

In the Pakistani context, Indian war planners came up with the fantastic notion of limited war against the backdrop of two nuclear-powered nations, further evolving the Cold Start doctrine that foresees massive military inroads into Pakistan using its conventional might, and backed by the threat of nuclear weapons. 

However, Pakistan responded to the possibility of invasion at the hands of Indian forces under its guiding Cold Start doctrine by developing tactical nuclear warheads of low yield as well as Missile delivery systems of Short Range, lesser than 100 km to counteract such Indian designs. 

Despite taking these measures, the two sides have been unable to contain tensions along their borders since the nuclear tests of 1998. 

Matters reached alarming proportions and the two sides came close to an annihilating nuclear war when India "mistakenly misfired" a BrahMos supersonic cruise Missile into Pakistani territory. 

In fact, in a nuclear setting, it was unforgivable for Pakistan to take the launch on its chin, since it had no way of knowing whether its premier cities had come under nuclear attack from a supersonic missile following an unpredictable, zig-zags trajectory. 

It was only after the missile had exploded in Pakistan mere seconds after launch that Pakistan came to realize that it was not carrying a nuclear warhead. 

It is most probable that the launch of the BrahMos aimed at gauging the readiness of Pakistani Strategic Forces and their response, which, nevertheless cemented Indian calculations about the possibility of limited war within the nuclear milieu. 

Therefore, from experience, Russia would be well advised to factor in the effect of short-range Ukrainian missiles tipped with tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield as a precursor to a nuclear first strike that aims at annihilating Russia. 

All in all, it is irresponsible and reckless for a nuclear-armed power to be engaged in war on its borders, especially when its adversary has a history of stockpiles of nuclear weapons, and when it is being supported by a NATO that is armed to its teeth with nuclear weapons. 

Indeed, in such a scenario, one can expect even the space domain to be weaponized and to be used as a decisive instrument in a first strike.