Iran Nuclear Test

 An earthquake measuring 4.5 on the Richter scale struck the Iranian Semnan Province on October 5, triggering speculation that it may have been an underground nuclear test, due to its proximity to a nuclear facility. 

Following escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, which saw the assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh and Syed Hassan Nasrallah as well as the firing of drone and missile swarms by Iran into Israel in retaliation, speculations were rife that Iran may test a nuclear weapon. 

One Iranian lawmaker reportedly even remarked that the time taken to test a nuclear device is around one week from the issuance of the order. 

Further pressure was being put on Iran with talk of a possible Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. 

It is pertinent to note that Iran has been under some considerable pressure over its nuclear program, accentuated by the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which aimed at freezing Iranian nuclear technology, under the Trump Presidency. 

Similarly, the ongoing barrage of attacks by Hezbollah, Iran, and Yemen of swarms of drones, rockets, and missiles into Israel is repeatedly exposing the Iron Dome's limitations of intercepting such assaults. 

Israel remains under greater threat of a pre-emptive attack on its nuclear facilities than Iran due to its limited geographical size. 

Its venerated missile defense shield and ability to rule the skies through superior air power and network-centric, multi-layered air defenses have also been shot to bits with the recent failures of Iron Dome and David's Sling systems. 

Therefore, Israel itself would be under considerable pressure to conduct nuclear tests of its own to declare its nuclear deterrence.

Indeed, sustained pressure on Iran in the form of sanctions against its nuclear program for decades may be seen as an Israeli opportunity to modernize its own weapons and WMD programs, and to pave the way towards testing its nuclear device citing the Iranian threat. 

While asymmetrical warfare and obsolete Katyusha rockets alone may not have justified an Israeli decision to test its nuclear deterrent, an existential threat from Iran is a different story altogether, which corners the Israelis into no option other than pursuing an aggressive atomic program and staying far ahead of the curve concerning the Iranian program. 

So far, Israel has successfully engaged with their Arab neighbors and ratcheted up severe paranoia among them regarding the Iranian nuclear designs and ambitions, with Saudi Arabia publically stating that they would have no choice but to go down the nuclear route should Iran develop its nuclear capability. 

However, with a long history of wars behind them, the Israelis will remain wary of their Arab neighbors. They will be especially cognizant of cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in the nuclear field that brings nuclear weapons closer to its doorstep. 

Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that Israel has been busy over the years preparing itself on multiple war fronts. 

Its military strategy has also been one that draws its fangs from its strategic weapons of mass destruction, with the Iranian - and the Pakistani - nuclear programs in its gunsights all the way through. 

While the world has remained engaged with Iran over its WMDs, Israel has quietly gone about its business amassing an ever-growing arsenal of cutting-edge conventional weapons to go with their nuclear weapons program. 

The military gap with its Arab neighbors is far too wide to bridge overnight - both Saudi Arabia and Egypt will thus be looking at a nuclear deterrent as their best option for defense against Israeli aggression. 

Such a scenario inevitably pits Pakistan against Israel and encourages India to push an Israeli agenda.