High Command Movement

 With the incoming DG ISI, Lt. Gen Asim Malik, several key developments present themselves as challenges to the incumbent, promoted from his assignment as Adjutant General at the GHQ. 

These challenges include:

• The continuing incarceration of Imran Khan
• A new cycle of street protests and dharnas by the PTI
• A resurgent Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement calling for a jirga
• A fresh wave of terrorism
• The short-term challenge of hosting the SCO summit
• Renewed attacks on Chinese personnel in the country
• The judicial divide and the passage of the 26th Amendment
• The Court Martial of Lt. Gen Faiz Hameed
• A belligerent BLA and its wave of terror in Balochistan
• The ongoing strife in the Middle East, with a focus on Yemen, Sudan, Egypt, Iran, and Israel, and its fallout on Pakistan

Rana Banerjee, who headed the Pakistan desk at RAW, is keenly following developments within the Pakistan army and reports that a number of key postings lie vacant after the scheduled retirement of officers belonging to the 78th and 79th Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) long courses, as well as those serving from the 19th Officers Training Scheme (OTS, Mangla). 

Vacancies include the Adjutant General at the GHQ and the important Corps Commands at Multan and Bahawalpur. 

Retired generals include:

• Corps Commander II Corps, Multan, Lieutenant General Akhtar Nawaz (19th OTS; Frontier Force Regiment)
• President, National Defence University, Lieutenant General Asif Ghafoor (78th PMA; Artillery)
• Quartermaster General, Lieutenant General Mohd Ali (79th PMA; Artillery) who has been appointed secretary, of defense for a three-year term
• Corps Commander 31 Corps, Bahawalpur, Lieutenant General Saqib Mehmood Malik (79th PMA; Punjab Regiment), Corps Commander. 

With General Asim Munir retiring next year, current developments and the political imbroglio present a unique set of challenges for the military leadership. 

The 26th Constitutional Amendment gives a taste of what is to follow and what can be expected in the coming time. 

While the ruling coalition government has made its intentions of reining in the judiciary and handpicking judges to the proposed Federal Constitutional Court, it is expected that the choice for the next COAS is going to be a hotly contested battle between the military and the government. 

The timing of political events and the surprising decision to hasten amendments therefore seeks, in part, to draw in the military in a war of attrition with the civilian authorities. 

Juggling around of the military high command - a prerogative of the COAS - may take a few surprising turns before the retirement of Gen Asim Munir, who himself was rushed out of office as DG ISI after a mere 6 months in charge, before taking over the reins as Corps Commander Gujranwala, and, ultimately, as COAS. 

While the military will remain mired in several key issues already outlined above, with incoming commanders drawing the ire of analysts and government forces who are under pressure on every governance front, Gen Asim Munir will be similarly under pressure to maintain an iron grip on the military for the remainder of his term. 

A key indicator in his tenure will remain the holding of a peaceful SCO Summit, which, rather unfortunately, holds his legacy in the balance in the wake of recent violence as well as planned PTI protests in Islamabad. 

While the army remains powerless to hold any meaningful negotiations with the PTI about its politics of street agitation and mobilization of its workers, the watershed event serves as the focal point from whence jostling and jockeying for power within the army may take place. 

In this scenario, as happened in the case of General Mirza Aslam Beg during his tenure, the government may appoint the future COAS well before the retirement of the incumbent. 

It is also possible, in light of recent developments and the Constitutional Amendments, for the COAS to take an extension, particularly if he fears that the discipline of the army may be compromised in the coming year due to an increasingly ineffectual political and judicial system as well as machinations of foreign powers. 

Already, the military is under some severe attack for the Court Martial of Gen Faiz Hameed, where the military admits that it's discipline has been compromised; few would have stomach for a further slide in its professionalism and public image. 

For now, however, the overriding challenge is for the military to ensure everything goes smoothly at the SCO Summit. 

At this juncture, the release of Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi would throw the spanner in the works and catch the military further off guard, unless it remains involved with all stakeholders at all levels of the judicial-politics divide.